Analysis of Interprovincial Differences in CO2 Emissions and Peak Prediction in the Yangtze River Delta

The Yangtze River Delta is the most populous and economically active region in China. Studying reduction CO2 emissions this of great significance achieving goal “peak carbon neutrality” In study, Tapio decoupling extended STIRPAT models were used to study differences provincial characteristics influencing factors from 2001 2019. results show that growth rate was slower than economic development, which means a state weak decoupling. As found by ridge regression, same factor has different impacts on among provinces. these mainly caused imbalance development Delta. Nine scenarios set out predict future trend based technology using model. It low-carbon-emissions conducive controlling case, would peak 2029 at 1895.78~1908.25 Mt. Compared with scenarios, both medium- high-carbon-emissions are not peak, 2~5-year delay time increasing 3.69~7.68%. order reduce Delta’s pass as soon possible, it essential only optimize energy structure, upgrade industries promote coordinated low-carbon technologies, but also transportation construction fields advocate for lifestyle public.